Reliability and Economic Efficiency Benefits of Probabilistic Renewable Forecasts

Although increased variable renewables increase the needs for operating reserves, probabilistic forecasts for solar and wind production and system load can help system operators reflect the most recent weather information in definitions of ancillary services requirements and as a result improve both costs and reliability.ISO/utility staff will review present and future uses of probabilistic forecasts, while developers of probabilistic solar forecasting systems will summarize their capabilities and performance. The panel will include researchers who have quantified the impact of such forecasts on reserve requirements, and resulting indices of system costs and reliability.