Planning for Uncertainty on the Distribution System

Distribution system planners are increasingly faced with new and higher levels of uncertainty when planning the future and modern distribution system. These uncertainties impact various aspects of the planning process. For example, customer adoption of photovoltaics introduces uncertainties in forecasting both capacity and locations of these sources “ as well as the renewable™s variable power output. Similarly, new technologies or resources may be considered as non-wire alternatives (NWA) to traditional network upgrades. The planner must not only contend with uncertainties of availability and operation, but may also that of the operational lifespans, changes in asset and energy markets, as well as regulatory requirements that may influence their economic viability. Consequently, methods and tools that move beyond the traditional deterministic planning to more probabilistic or risk-based planning approaches are needed. This panel will survey approaches being developed and applied in support planners in ensuring the benefits of the modern distribution system.